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Bill Griffeth's avatar

From The New York Times:

Can We Do Twice as Many Vaccinations as We Thought?

By Zeynep Tufekci and Michael Mina

Data suggests significant protection even without a second shot. If studies prove that’s true, it could be a game changer.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/18/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html?smid=em-share

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Mark Russell's avatar

Another thought: there are going to be many, many more vaccines available, and some of those will be easier to make, cheaper to make, easier to store, and cheaper to ramp-up. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Phizer and Moderna are going to come to the rescue of a select few. Let them do so at the best level available. The proof of concept they have shown will likely lead to a cascade of positive results, of varying CI%. We will need them all, and even if the general roll-out is late, choice will come into play when people are reluctant to take a vaccine that 1) can give a strong allergic reaction 2) was derived from stem-cell lines 3) was made from GMO's 4) is from a company they don't like 5) you get the idea. Whatever it takes, we need to effectively vaccinate as many people as possible.

Personally, I think the avoidance numbers will be much lower than the polls are predicting, because of a feature of human nature: When people see other sub-groups getting in line ahead of them, their jealousy will incline them to want to join the herd.

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