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Michael Brian Orr's avatar

Just great, Zeynep. As with the Counters, we see that your vision for Insight goes beyond publishing to catalyzing a thoughtful-about-thought thought community. The principles you're talking about speak to not just a theory of knowledge, but a practice of knowledge; what the ubiquitous "how to spot misinformation" guides are groping for but fall so far short of achieving. Would love to sign up for the Zeynep 'Practice of Knowledge' forum - what are my chances?

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Scott Ulring's avatar

Full disclosure, I'm from MN and went to Luther College where Michael Osterholm is also from.

There is a bit of a take down on Michael which I think is appropriate (he said it and it did show western bias I thought) and unfair (he said other things at exactly the same time that were very good and actually he was one of the first experts in the USA to say it.)

Michael was skeptical as Zeynep points out, very early that unsymptomatic people would be spreading the disease.

That said, at precisely the same time he was one of the first in the US and loudest saying two important things: 1) the virus is likely airborne, "just by breathing", and 2) that super-spreaders were likely a key component of how the virus spreads. Both 1) and 2) were right on:

Jan 21st: "The thing we worry about as health officials is a thing called 'super spreading,' where we have certain individuals that are not just infectious but highly infectious."

Jan 24th: "The [novel] coronavirus is one that can be transferred quite readily by the respiratory tract—just breathing. So, it has the potential to spread quickly around the world. It also is one that a sizable portion of the population typically has severe illness and death."

Then on asymptomatic spread, this turned out to be wrong:

Jan 26th: “I seriously doubt that the Chinese public officials have any data supporting this statement,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “I know of no evidence in 17 years of working with coronaviruses — SARS and MERS – where anyone has been found to be infectious during their incubation period.”

By Feb 24th Osterholm had reversed himself on his Jan 26th statement:

Feb 24th: "The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 seems to spread like influenza, through the air, person to person. Unlike Ebola, SARS and MERS, it can be transmitted by individuals before the onset of symptoms or even if they don’t become ill."

I agree that Michael could have and should have pointed out that his earlier guidance based on "all his years" of studying MERS and SARS, was wrong and arrogant Jan 26th. He should have been clear and should have been honest on the 24th that he got this piece wrong.

So in general I think Zeynep's take-down is well placed because Michael never, to my knowledge, confessed that he had it wrong on this very important topic at the beginning.

I do think it reflects badly on him that when he was right he trumpets his rightness and when he was wrong he said nothing that would let us understand he learned something. That is NOT science, that is P.R.

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